Identification of dynamical models for Dst-index forecasting

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Space and Atmospheric Physics
1Semeniv, OV, 1Yatsenko, VO
1Space Research Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Kosm. nauka tehnol. 2010, 16 ;(1):55-60
https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2010.01.055
Publication Language: Russian
Abstract: 
The new method of dynamic model identification for Dst-index prediction by using experimental data is proposed. The method is based on the reconstruction of the nonlinear discrete dynamic system that gives the prediction of the geomagnetic index value with a high level of correlation to the real data. The genetic programming was used for the simulation of structure and parameters identification for Dst-index pre­diction. Predictive values of the Dst-index dynamics for 1-9 hours ahead are derived.
Keywords: dynamical models, genetic programming, geomagnetic index
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