Nonlinear dynamical-information magnetosphere models for space weather forecasting
Heading:
| 1Cheremnykh, OK, 2Sidorenko, VI, 1Yatsenko, VA 1Space Research Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine 2National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine |
| Kosm. nauka tehnol. 2008, 14 ;(1):77-84 |
| https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2008.01.077 |
| Publication Language: Russian |
Abstract: We describe dynamical-information magnetosphere models for Dst index forecasting in the form of nonlinear "black-box". We assume the presence of a weak turbulence for the magnetosphere plasma that depends on the solar wind speed and south magnetic field component. We propose nonlinear dynamical-information magnetosphere models to forecast the Dst index using decomposition procedure of nonlinear perturbation in the series of correlation functions. The models allow us to forecast the evolution of the Dst index for 100 hours ahead in the absence of anomalous solar wind perturbations.
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| Keywords: Dst index, magnetosphere, nonlinear perturbation |
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