Prediction of local geomagnetic activity on the example of data of “Lviv” Magnetic Observatory

1Vlasov, DI, 1Parnowski, AS
1Space Research Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Space Sci. & Technol. 2021, 27 ;(1):78-84
Publication Language: Ukrainian
For the first time in world practice, predictive models were constructed for X, Y, Z geomagnetic elements. Based on these models, the prediction was made with 3 hours lead time using data of  the “Lviv” magnetic observatory. The properties of models are as follows: observatory — LVV, рredicted values — XYZ; lead time — 3 hours; correlation coefficients’ averaged measurement data — 0.824 (X), 0.811 (Y), 0.804 (Z); prediction efficiency — 0.816 (X), 0.803 (Y), 0.801 (Z); skill score — 0.115 (X), 0.095 (Y), 0.099 (Z). The developed models were tested in the Main Center of Special Monitoring, and they were found to meet the Basic Requirements for operational predictive models.
Keywords: local geomagnetic activity, regression modeling, space weather
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