On some approaches to the assessment of state space programs effectiveness

Heading: 
Social Sciences in Space Exploration
1Fedorov, OP, 1Samoylenko, LI, 1Kolos, LM
1Space Research Institute of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine and the State Space Agency of Ukraine, Kyiv, Ukraine
Space Sci.&Technol. 2016, 22 ;(4):03-18
https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2016.04.003
Publication Language: Russian
Abstract: 
The existing methodology of the space programs’ effectiveness assessment is analyzed, and approaches to a methodology of socio-economic efficiency estimating of the national space activity are discussed. The methodological principles of the analysis of the effectiveness have been formulated for the state space programs, viewing them as a complicated weakly structured object of study. The criterial base of estimating is proposed. Two sets of criteria are considered relevant to the various stages of program implementation (ongoing and completed). We propose a design scheme of integrated estimates of alternatives’ effectiveness based on the modified process of a hierarchy analysis.
Keywords: assessment of effectiveness, criterial base of estimating, hierarchy analysis, space program
Full text (PDF)
 
References: 
1. Alpatov A.P., Marchenko V.T., Khorolskyi P.P., Sazina N.P. Methodology for financial and economic feasibility of conceptual problems in rocket-space industry. Kosm. nauka tehnol., 20 (6), 49—59 (2014) [in Ukrainian].
2. Gal'perin V. M., Ignat'ev S. M., Morgunov V. I. Microeconomics, (Vols. 1-2) (Institut «Eco monic school», Saint-Petersburg, 2004).  Retrieved from: http://microeconomica.economicus.ru (Title from the screen) [in Russian].
3. Gusynin V. P., Goldshtein Yu. M., Doroshkevich V. K., et al. Multicriterial comparative analysis of rocket and space technology. Kosm. nauka tehnol., 11 (1-2), 3—9 (2005) [in Russian].
https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2005.01.003
4. Druzhinin E. A., Mazorchuk M. S., Cihmistro I. N. Analysis of the effectiveness of state programs and assessment of the impact of their implementation on the development of enterprises. Aerospace technic and technology, Is. 1, 158—163 (2003) [in Russian].
5. Kolos L. N., Voronin A. N. Technology of Multicriteria Estimation of Hierarchical Structures for Estimating Scenarios of Development of the Ukrainian Space Industry. Problemy upravlenija i informatiki, No. 6, 104—113 (2009) [in Russian].
6. Noghin V. D. A simplified variant of the analytic hierarchy process based on a nonlinear scalarizing function. Zhurn. vychislit. matem. i matematich. fiz., 44 (7), 1259—1268 (2004) [in Russian].
7. Saaty Th. L., Kearns K. P. Analytical Planning. The Organization of Systems, 224 p. (Radio i svjaz', Moscow, 1991) [in Russian].
8. Samoilenko L. I., Kolos L. N. Development of the Methodology of Estimating of the Effectiveness in the Space Activity. Problemy upravlenija i informatiki, No. 6, 132—144 (2015) [in Russian].
9. Samoilenko L. I., Yakovleva L. M., Ilyenko T. V., et al. Development of the Methodology of Estimation of Scenarios in Problems of Planning of Space Activity. Part 1. Problemy upravlenija i informatiki, No. 5, 145–156 (2005); Part 2. Problemy upravlenija i informatiki, No. 6, 127–131 (2005);  [in Russian].
10. Fedorov O. P., Kolos L. N. Ukrainian space activity: Some approaches to the strategy development. Kosm. nauka tehnol., 17 (1), 3—11 (2011) [in Russian].
https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2011.01.003
11. Fedorovsky A. D., Yakimchuk V. G., Bodnar H. N., Kozlov Z. V. Efficiency evaluation of remote sensing space systems based on hierarchy analysis method.  Kosm. nauka tehnol., 11 (3-4), 75— 80 (2005) [in Russian].
https://doi.org/10.15407/knit2005.03.075
12. Chernorutskiy I. G. Methods of decision making, 416 p. (BHV- Petersburg, Saint Petersburg, 2005) [in Russian].
13. Benefits Stemming from Space Exploration [Electronic resource], September 2013, 26 p.  Mode of access: WWW.URL: www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/Benefits-Stemming-from-Space-Expl...  (Title from the screen).
14. Cohendet P. Evaluating the industrial indirect effects of technology programs: the case of the European Space Agency (ESA) programs [Electronic resource], 189—223 (1997). Mode of access: WWW.URL: www.oecd.org/sti/inno/1907989.pdf (Title from the screen).
15. Cohendet P. Measuring the Impact of Investments in Space: New Challenges, New Perspectives [Electronic resource], 2013.  Mode of access: WWW.URL: substance-en.etsmtl.ca/measuring-the-impact-of-investments-in-space-new-challenges-new-perspectives/  (Title from the screen).
16. Cost-Benefit Analysis for GMES: Directorate-General for Enterprise & Industry [Electronic resource], 246 p. (London, September 2011) Mode of access: WWW.URL: www.copernicus.eu/ sites/default/files/library/ec_gmes_cba_final_en.pdf  (Title from the screen).
17. Economic impact and technological progress of NASA research and development expenditures. Volume 1: Executive report (Midwest Research Institute) [Electronic resource], 79 p. (1988) Mode of access: WWW.URL: archive.org/stream/ nasa_techdoc_19940005394/19940005394_djvu.txt  (Title from the screen).
18. Gurtuna O. Fundamentals of Space Business and Economics. In: Springer Briefs in Space Development, 85 p. (Springer, New York, 2013).
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-6696-3
19. NASA Receives $19.3 Billion in Final 2016 Spending Bill [Electronic resource]. Mode of access: WWW.URL: spacenews.com/nasa-receives-19-3-billion-in-final-2016-spending-bill/#sthash.CucgoVyd.dpuf (Title from the screen).
20. O'Neill G. K. The High Frontier: Human Colonies in Space, 288 p. (W. Morrow & Co, New York, 1977).
21. Sandler T., Schulze W. The economics of outer space [Electronic resource]. J. Natural Res., 21 (2), 371—393 (1981). Mode of access: WWW.URL: lawschool.unm.edu/nrj/volumes/21/2/09_sandler_economics.pdf (Title from the screen).
22. The Global Exploration Roadmap [Electronic resource], 50 p. (August 2013). Mode of access: WWW.URL: www.globalspaceexploration.org/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/ 2013/10/GER_2013.pdf (Title from the screen).